Significant ecological damage before carbon runs out

Substantial environmental harm will occur before carbon becomes too expensive to extract, causing great loss of natural biodiversity.

Great Simplification of ecosystems

A reduction in the variety and complexity of Earth's ecosystems — not a collapse of civilization, but a dramatic impoverishment of natural systems.

Next-gen energy being bootstrapped now

Current carbon-based energy is funding and building the infrastructure for solar, wind, fission, fusion, and other future energy sources.

All extractable carbon still gets used

Even if working fusion arrived tomorrow, humanity would still consume all accessible carbon and mine all available minerals due to the growth imperative.

Energy transition is a race against ecological damage

Humanity's adaptability means civilization can likely transition to new energy sources, but the question is whether it happens fast enough to limit ecological harm.

Civilization continues advancing despite ecological loss

Absent Carrington/Miyake events, WW3, or similar catastrophes, human civilization continues its advance even as ecosystems are simplified.

Expansion into space becomes necessary

The only way to avoid eventual collapse given the unstoppable growth imperative is to expand into space, accessing effectively infinite energy and resources.

Less damage to Earth's biosphere

The sooner humanity expands into space, the less extraction pressure falls on Earth, preserving more of its unique biodiversity.

Greater irreversible ecological damage

Delayed space expansion means continued resource extraction on Earth, causing deeper and potentially irreversible ecological simplification.

Civilization faces collapse risk

A Carrington/Miyake-level event, WW3, or similar catastrophe could derail civilization's advance and the energy transition entirely.